By Mike Dodd, USMC (Ret.)
President Xi Jinping has instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. Yes, you read that correctly – an audacious and alarming timeline. This is not hyperbole, it is not political posturing; it is a clear and present danger from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
To understand the gravity of this situation, we must explore why Taiwan is so critical to both China and the United States and the stakes for global security. The roots of the Taiwan issue trace back to the aftermath of the Chinese Civil War (1945–1949), when the defeated Kuomintang government retreated to the island and established a separate government. While Taiwan evolved into a thriving democracy, mainland China remained a one-party state, ruled by the CCP.
For decades, Beijing has viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province, vowing to "reunify" it with the mainland by any means necessary. Taiwan’s autonomy, coupled with its strategic location and democratic values, has made it a geopolitical flashpoint.
But Taiwan’s importance goes far beyond ideology. This small island produces 63% of the world’s semiconductors, including 90% of the most advanced chips. If Beijing were to seize control of Taiwan, it would gain a stranglehold over global technology and tilt the balance of power in its favor. For the United States, which has long backed Taiwan, this would be a catastrophic blow to national security and economic stability.
Xi Jinping’s plans are not idle threats. Under his leadership, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone unprecedented modernization. By 2027, the PLA is expected to be fully capable of executing a swift invasion of Taiwan.
As a retired Coast Guard officer noted in a recent analysis, “Speed, deception, and coercion will be critical to China’s strategy for a forceful unification…to decrease the potential of foreign intervention.” The PLA’s aggressive military exercises and incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone are not just provocations; they’re rehearsals.
Simultaneously, the CCP is deploying economic and diplomatic pressure worldwide. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road, which aims to expand China’s influence by funding infrastructure projects in developing nations, China has built a network of economically dependent countries that may support its actions against Taiwan.
Furthermore, by some accounts, CCP capital investing or attempting to invest in non-traditional technology companies—including many with Department of Defense (DoD) interests—is as high as 10%. This creates a prickly situation for companies seeking to do business with the DoD, as any ties to adversarial capital could jeopardize their eligibility. Such investments are not merely business ventures; they are strategic plays by Beijing to undermine U.S. national security from within.
Moreover, the CCP has ramped up propaganda efforts to shape international opinion. As Erik Prince aptly stated, “The Chinese are an ancient society… but at their very core, remain committed Bolsheviks.” Their ambitions are not just about reunification but about establishing a global order centered around Beijing’s interests.
Fortunately, the United States is taking steps to counter these moves. The Department of Defense’s efforts to bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities, combined with President Biden’s executive order restricting investments in critical Chinese technologies, are important first steps.
However, much more is needed. Policymakers like Senator Jim Banks have introduced legislation to ensure U.S. capital does not fund adversarial technologies. State-level actions, such as Indiana’s divestment from Chinese-affiliated holdings, serve as a blueprint for broader national efforts.
Despite these measures, the clock is ticking. Xi Jinping views Taiwan not only as a strategic prize but as a cornerstone of his legacy. As the leader who aims to achieve the “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation,” Xi cannot afford to leave the Taiwan question unresolved. Ans history has shown, the CCP will act boldly if unchecked. The international community must respond with equal resolve.
President-elect Trump has voiced aspirations for maintaining peace with China in his upcoming term, emphasizing his “very good relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping. When questioned about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Trump stated, “If you go into Taiwan, I’m sorry to do this, but I’m going to tax you at 150% to 200%.”
As Americans, we must recognize that our economic and national security are deeply intertwined with Taiwan’s fate. Dependence on cheap Chinese goods and investments comes at a steep price—a price that could cost us our technological edge, our alliances, and ultimately our freedom.
Warren Buffett once said, “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” When it comes to Taiwan, we cannot afford to look back with regret. The time to act is now—with clear eyes, unwavering resolve, and a commitment to defending democracy against authoritarian aggression.
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